Cobalt will remain scarce worldwide until 2030, and prices have risen by more than 160 %.

Cobalt: Prices rise, supplies shrink – how does this affect the market?

*According to analytics firm Fastmarkets*

- Cobalt prices, a key material for batteries and aerospace/defense industries, have risen by more than 160 %.

- In February 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which supplies over 70 % of global cobalt production, halted exports and introduced strict quotas from October.

Result:

- The deficit of cobalt hydroxide – DRC’s main product – has exceeded 82,000 tonnes.

What it looks like on the global market
Indicator Value Global cobalt deficit (Darton Commodities forecast) Remains until the end of the decade World refined cobalt production 2025 Dropped by about 20 % – first decline in five years

Why is this important?

- Restrictions in the DRC “caused a sharp technical shortage,” which was temporarily offset by stocks, but those stocks are now depleting.

- Price increases are seen throughout the supply chain: from mining to final product.

Possible changes from Congo
- In 2025, the DRC may ease export quotas. This would allow:

- Reduce the risk of demand decline.
- Maximize revenues by maintaining high prices and limited supply.

What’s happening with supplies
Country Current status China First cobalt shipment expected in May‑June after new procedures are implemented. Indonesia Growth in imports of Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) – a nickel‑cobalt mix, but risks exist: sulfur disruptions, ore availability, environmental issues.

Conclusions
- Export restrictions in the DRC have highlighted the vulnerability of the cobalt supply chain.
- Companies are investing in diversification and material substitutes.
- These changes may slow demand growth in some end‑user markets while the market adapts to new conditions.

*Summary from Darton Commodities: “Prices continue to rise due to raw material shortages; meanwhile supplies are gradually recovering, but with delays and risks, especially in Indonesia.”*