Goldman Sachs experts concluded that artificial intelligence is unlikely to impact the U.S. economy in 2025.

Brief news summary

- The U.S. GDP grew by 2.2 % annually.

- Goldman Sachs estimates that artificial intelligence (AI) contributed minimally to this growth – about 0.2 % of the total increase.

- Labeling AI as “small” may heighten skepticism outside the United States, where AI activity remains largely confined to the American market.

Key details

How it affects the economy inside the U.S.
The bulk of capital investments by cloud giants (Amazon, Google, etc.) go toward developing AI infrastructure, but 75 % of those investments will support GDP growth in producer countries – Taiwan, South Korea, China.
Asian markets
Component and computing system manufacturers benefit significantly from American demand for AI technologies.

Investor reaction
The capitalization of AI startups raises concerns: the “bright future” expectations are not being met, and market participants seek realistic payback timelines for large projects.

Effectiveness assessment
According to Goldman Sachs, almost all necessary resources for developing national AI infrastructure are imported, making it difficult to measure the net impact on individual sectors. The 0.2 % GDP increase last year can be attributed only to chatbots and large language models.

Methodology
There are currently no established methods for assessing AI’s contribution, complicating further analysis.

Thus, despite notable GDP growth in 2023, AI’s contribution is considered limited, and most investments flow through Asian production chains, leaving questions about real economic returns and transparency of the assessment.