The acceleration of global warming will worsen the wear and tear on rooftop solar panels—prices for “solar” electricity will rise without action.

Brief on the Study Results

An international group of scientists has, for the first time, assessed the impact of global warming on the degradation of solar panels installed on building rooftops. The study showed that rising temperatures increase the risk of module overheating and accelerate their aging.

1. Why roofs are especially hazardous
- The limited gap between a panel and the building structure causes heat to “trap,” amplifying the thermal effect.
- As average temperatures rise, solar modules begin to overheat faster than current standards account for.

2. Shortcomings of Current IEC Standards
Heating | Threat Assessment by IEC‑63126+2 °C | 74 % of capacities | +4 °C | 48 % of capacities
The remaining 26 % and 52 % of capacities are considered “insignificant,” yet the actual risk of degradation is higher there. This leads to underestimation of electricity costs and sudden expenses for investors.

3. What Was Studied
- Climate models: 20 CMIP6 scenarios with offset adjustments.
- Operating module temperatures: crystalline silicon, 20° tilt angle, equatorial orientation.
- Physical aging model: Arrhenius.
- Baseline degradation rate: 0.66 % per year.
- Module failure threshold: 20 % power loss.
- Critical panel temperatures: 70 °C (standard) and 80 °C (extreme).

4. Key Findings
1. With +2.5 °C warming, LCOE rises up to 20 % in some regions – almost three times the impact of other climate factors.
2. Africa, South Asia, and parts of South America are most sensitive; electricity costs there will rise substantially more than in developed countries.
3. At +4 °C warming, the gap between the most and least vulnerable countries doubles, meaning a doubled risk of temperature‑induced degradation compared to current standard forecasts.

5. Implications for the Energy Market
- Increased unplanned expenses.
- Undermining the idea of distributed solar as a tool for energy justice: poorer regions will pay more for a less reliable source.
- Investors and contractors face premature system failures, unforeseen replacement costs, and price hikes.

6. Proposed Actions
- Urgently update industry standards to incorporate future climate scenarios.
- Scientists have already prepared new global risk maps.
- The work has attracted the attention of IEC Technical Committee 82; further collaboration is planned.

Conclusion

Without adapting to a changing climate, rooftop solar panels will become more expensive and less reliable, especially in developing countries. Updating standards and accounting for new risks is a key step to preserve the economic viability and fairness of distributed energy.