The memory‑pressure market: smartphone releases in 2026 could drop by 10–15%.

TrendForce predicts a decline in global smartphone production due to rising memory costs

The analytical firm TrendForce released a report stating that the current rise in memory prices could exert significant pressure on the global mobile device market by 2026.

Key figures
Scenario Expected annual production cut (%) Approximate volume in 2026 Optimistic –10 %≈ 1.135 million units Pessimistic ≥15 %

Why memory is becoming a “heavy” factor
* Continuously rising prices – in Q1 2026 contract prices for a popular smartphone with 8 GB RAM and 256 GB storage rose by almost 200 % compared to the same period last year (roughly threefold).

* Impact on cost of goods sold – the share of memory in component costs increased to 30–40 %, whereas it previously accounted for only 10–15 %.

* Consumer demand – the gap between high retail prices and purchasing power is widening, leading to a drop in demand.

How brands are responding
Brand Advantages / weaknesses Expected effect Samsung Vertical integration; own memory suppliers Production decline less than Chinese companies, but overall volume still falls Apple Higher share of premium models and loyal customer base Ability to keep higher prices, which mitigates the production drop Xiaomi / Transsion Strong dependence on budget devices High price sensitivity → likely significant volume reduction in 2026 Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi, Honor Competition with Huawei in the Chinese market Increased pressure from Huawei, but a slight production adjustment is possible Huawei Focus on HarmonyOS ecosystem and flexible pricing Expected minimal production correction, even growth in some segments

Structural factors
TrendForce emphasizes that the downturn is not only due to memory costs. Modern smartphones already have functionality sufficient for most consumers, so:

* Device lifecycle duration increases;

* Incentives for upgrading decrease.

Thus, even with stabilized memory prices, overall demand may remain low in the coming years.