Amazon believes that artificial intelligence will accelerate AWS growth to $600 billion in annual revenue.

New ambitious forecast for Amazon’s AWS

At a recent employee meeting, Nvidia founder stated that the company could earn up to $1 trillion from AI in two‑three years. This statement attracted the attention of other tech giants’ leaders, including Andy Jassy—Amazon’s CEO.

1 – Andy Jassy’s Forecast – Goal: Over the next ten years AWS (Amazon’s cloud services) should generate $600 billion in revenue annually.

- That is twice as high as the previous forecast—$300 billion by 2036.
- Jassy explains the growth: “What’s happening right now in AI,” he added.

2 – How this aligns with reality | Metric | Current level (2024) | Forecast (10 years)

|----------------|------------------------|------------------|
| AWS Revenue | $128.7 billion | $600 billion |
| Annual growth | 19% (y‑o‑y from last year) | ~17% CAGR |

To reach the goal, revenue must grow about 17% per year. The structure of future revenue is not yet disclosed.

3 – Investments and risks – This year Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in new data centers.
- After announcing capital expenditures, the stock price fell as investors worried about rising costs.
- Jassy believes AI opens a “very large” market and there are clear signals of demand for the corresponding infrastructure. Therefore he sees it justified and necessary to increase capital spending for another two years before profitability begins.

4 – Other key initiatives –
- Drone delivery: Amazon plans to launch drone‑based product deliveries at a scale of one million orders already this year. Experiments have been underway since 2013, and the service is now available in select regions with a promise of delivery within 30 minutes.
- Closure of Fresh & Go: In January the company announced the shutdown of its small grocery stores “Fresh and Go,” which contributed less than 1% of total retail revenue.

Thus Amazon sets a goal to double AWS’s income over ten years, relying on AI growth and new technological initiatives. This will require significant infrastructure investments and further scaling efforts.