Apple, with its new iPhone Fold, will enter the top three leaders in the foldable phone market.

Foldable iPhone: How Apple Could Shift the Market

1. What Analysts Expect
- TrendForce forecasts that even with a “late” launch of the first foldable iPhone in September 2026, Apple could capture 20% of the foldable smartphone market.

- This won’t make Apple the leader, but the shares of existing giants Samsung Electronics and Huawei Technologies will drop to about 30% each.
Last year their market shares were 38.1% (Samsung) and 36.1% (Huawei).

2. Current Segment Challenges
- The main problem: visibility of the fold at the hinge area.

- Cause – micro‑cracks or deformation of the neutral layer of the display.

- To reduce stresses, the neutral layer must be positioned more precisely during flexible panel manufacturing.

3. Technological Solutions
Company | What Is Being Developed | How It Helps | Apple | Flexible Panel with Variable Thickness that Decreases at the Bend Without Losing Strength | Reduces Fold Visibility and Increases Durability | Special Transparent Adhesive Compositions | Softly Respond to Smooth Bending but Are Impact‑Resistant; Fill Micro‑Cracks, Concealing Wear Marks | Samsung | Laser Perforation of Metal Plate Inside Display | Reduces Distance Between Holes in the Bend Zone, Increasing Flexibility While Maintaining Rigidity

4. Where the Industry Is Heading
- Engineers have already stopped focusing solely on hinges; the main task is now materials science.

- The development of new materials and adhesive formulations will determine who becomes the leader in foldable smartphones in the coming years.

Conclusion
The foldable iPhone could significantly shift the balance of power in the market. Even with a delayed launch, Apple can capture a substantial share, but fully overtaking Samsung and Huawei remains unlikely – their positions will shrink to 30% each. The key to success for all players lies in improving materials and display bending technologies.