Global personal computer sales will decline by 5 % due to rising memory costs, while the only bright spot remains Apple and gaming segments.

Counterpoint Research Forecast: Global PC shipments will fall to 262 million by 2026

The analytical firm Counterpoint Research estimates that in 2026 the number of personal computers sold worldwide will decline by roughly 5% compared with 2025. While in 2025 there were 275 million units, by 2026 it will be 262 million.

> The main reason for the drop is the sustained rise in memory (RAM) prices. Manufacturers are forced to raise end‑product prices to cover costs, which reduces overall demand.

PC Segment Stability
Counterpoint notes that the PC market remains more reliable than other consumer electronics categories. This is due to an active replacement cycle:

- The majority of the existing user base can still upgrade to Windows 11;
- Microsoft continually pushes new OS versions, encouraging buyers to replace old hardware.

Historical Context
* 2021 – peak pandemic year: sales exceeded 300 million units.
* In 2023 there was a decline, but in 2024–2025 figures recovered, though not reaching 2021 levels.

Brand Divergence
| Brand | Expected Effect |
|-------|-----------------|
| Dell, HP, Lenovo | Smallest sales decline |
| Acer, Asus | More pronounced drop |
| Apple | Opposite trend – growth thanks to the new MacBook Neo |

According to Counterpoint’s forecast, Apple may sell more computers in 2026 than in 2025, aided by new models and support from Apple.

Gaming PC Market
* The rise in component prices (especially memory) will have a minor impact on sales of high‑end gaming systems.
* If the RAM price increase adds $100–$200 to a $500 laptop, that becomes a significant percentage bump and could deter buyers.
* For gaming PCs, a $200 RAM cost at a $2 000 price point is only a small percentage rise, unlikely to cause young consumers to abandon purchases, especially since parents often fund such systems.

Conclusion: 2026 will bring a moderate decline in global PC shipments due to rising memory prices, but the segment remains relatively resilient thanks to upgrade cycles and Microsoft support. Sales dynamics will vary by brand: large players (Dell, HP, Lenovo) will suffer less, while Apple could even exceed current demand levels. In the gaming PC market, price volatility will have a weaker effect than on more affordable laptops.