Sales of humanoid robots in China will double this year, and their cost will decrease.

Chinese robotics steps onto the global stage

Elon Musk has already acknowledged that his “humanoid” robot Optimus will compete with Chinese counterparts. According to recent estimates by Morgan Stanley, sales volume of such robots in China will rise 133 % in 2024 and reach 28,000 units.

Earlier bank analysts had expected only half that figure. At the same time, production growth will be accompanied by a reduction in component costs: this year their cost will fall 16 %, and according to Bain & Co projections it will drop nearly 70 % by 2035.

2024 vs 2050 (forecast)
Price of one robot in China: from $50 000 to $21 000
Price in the U.S.: $200 000 → $75 000

By 2036, about 25.4 million humanoid robots are expected to be operating on the market—roughly 2 % of the total robotics market volume. As demand grows, their share will rise to 13 % by 2040 and reach 42 % by 2044. During the current year, nearly 80 % of new robots will be in operation specifically in China.

Where the first mass applications will appear
Bain & Co predicts that in the coming years robotics will mainly be used in:

- automotive manufacturing,
- mining,
- construction.

Domestic use of humanoid robots may become a reality only after 2035. Nevertheless, the market still retains space for specialized machines capable of performing narrow tasks faster and more efficiently, delivering quicker economic returns compared to general-purpose robots.

Sales forecasts
- 2023: 12 000 units sold in China
- 2024: expected 28 000
- 2030: projected 262 000
- 2035: nearly 2.6 million

Elon Musk emphasized that Chinese companies not only know how to scale production but also develop their own software for these robots. This makes them competitive both in manufacturing and service solutions worldwide.