Sales of personal computers in the current year will fall to a decade low, and prices will rise by 17 %; the budget market may lose its recovery permanently

Brief Summary

Industry experts warn that memory shortages and rising costs could lead to significant changes in the personal computer (PC) and smartphone markets. A slowdown in the adoption of AI‑enabled PCs is expected, and the budget PC segment may disappear by 2028. At the same time, price increases for DRAM and NAND will raise device costs, forcing consumers to choose more expensive models and extend equipment lifespans.

What Exactly Is Changing
Sector Expected Changes Market PCs • Adoption of AI PCs will slow until the end of next year.
• The budget segment (models < $500) will disappear by 2028.
• Average lifespan will increase: corporate +15%, consumer +20%. Market Smartphones • Demand will shift toward premium models, but rising prices will boost interest in used devices.
• The number of people abandoning new smartphone purchases in the entry segment will grow five times faster than in the premium.

Financial Metrics
Metric Current Year (2024) 2025 Growth Memory Prices +130% (DRAM + NAND) – Increase PC Cost +17% – Increase Smartphone Cost +13% – Share of Memory in PC COGS 16% 23%
*Explanation*: As prices rise, manufacturers cannot fully offset component cost increases, so new device prices will inevitably rise. This is especially hard for budget laptop makers—by 2028 they will become economically unviable.

Business Consequences
1. Decline in supply volumes
- PCs: –10.4%
- Smartphones: –8.4%

2. Longer lifespan → longer update and service cycles, especially in the corporate segment.

3. Reduced assortment – fewer models on the market as companies drop less profitable options.

4. Financial pressure
- Manufacturers will cut sales of low‑cost devices but maintain margins by keeping premium lines.
- Pressure on metrics will intensify from the second quarter of this year onward.

What the Market Will Face Until 2028
- AI PCs: market share will reach 50% only after 2028.
- Budget PCs (< $500) will disappear entirely.
- Entry‑level smartphones will lose a significant portion of buyers, while premium models will retain demand thanks to higher profitability.

Conclusion
Memory shortages and rising costs create a chain reaction: device prices rise, consumer demand shifts toward pricier models, and equipment lifespans extend. This leads to a shrinking assortment of budget devices and increased financial pressure on manufacturers, especially in the PC segment. As a result, significant market contraction is expected by 2028, when AI PCs will dominate more than half the market and classic budget PCs will vanish.