Silicon Motion's chapter forecasts a continuing memory shortage through 2028

Problem of NAND and DRAM memory shortages: forecast until 2028

Silicon Motion's memory controller developer, led by Gou Chia‑chang, confidently assesses the current market situation. According to him, the shortage of NAND memory and DRAM will persist until 2028.

Why demand remains high
* AI infrastructure – currently the industry focus has shifted to inference (computing model results). This requires large amounts of RAM and fast storage.

* Continuous price rise – in the second half of this year prices for memory will continue to climb, and the NAND shortage will not disappear.

How major players act
American technology giants are actively investing in expanding data centers. They procure memory in advance and enter long‑term contracts. This frenzy will inevitably ease when data center construction slows, but the market will no longer return to its previous price cycle.

Manufacturers' constraints
* Construction time – it takes 2 to 3 years to build a new plant and install equipment.

* Delivery lead time – even with parallel procurement, equipment stretches over a year and a half.

* As a result, rapidly increasing supply to meet demand is impossible.

What will happen next
In the next six months prices will continue to rise, but at a slower pace than in the first period. High prices are already hurting smartphone, PC, and gaming console manufacturers. Large companies can build memory inventories and weather the crisis more easily, while smaller players will find themselves in a tougher position.

Chinese suppliers help chip makers fight equipment shortages, but some Western models cannot yet be replaced by Chinese equivalents.