Tesla mobile units have traveled 16 billion km in autonomous mode, as Elon Musk predicted, so they can operate without driver supervision

Brief overview of Tesla’s “full autopilot”

Elon Musk has been saying since the early 2020s that by the end of each year Tesla electric vehicles will have the ability to operate fully autonomously. To prove the technology’s readiness, he cited a specific metric: the total mileage of all cars with FSD (Full Self‑Driving) must exceed 16 billion km. After that, according to him, driver supervision could be dropped.

What official Tesla statistics say
- The company’s website states that the total mileage in FSD mode already exceeds 16 billion km.
- Of those, more than 6 billion km were logged in urban settings.
- According to Tesla, cars with active FSD are involved in major accidents on average 8.3 times less often than an average vehicle in the United States. A similar difference is observed for minor incidents.

How Musk’s requirements have changed
- Initially he claimed that about 10 billion km of cumulative mileage would be needed for reliable autonomy.
- Later the target was raised to 16 billion km, which in the American measurement system equates to a “round” figure of 10 billion miles.

Criticism and real data
The method Tesla uses to count accidents has been repeatedly criticized. Independent studies show that robotaxis in Texas were involved in crashes roughly four times more often than an average American driver.

What Musk promises
Tesla’s CEO says that by the fourth quarter of this year FSD will be available without human oversight. However, it is worth remembering that he has postponed the implementation of this plan multiple times before.