The decline in global smartphone sales over 13 years is caused by a lack of memory, and recovery will happen gradually

What analysts say about the smartphone market by the end of 2026
Key takeaway

Most leading industry agencies have concluded that in the coming years, price increases for memory (LPDDR4/5) and its scarcity will lead to a significant reduction in smartphone supply volumes.

Agency forecasts of supply decline Additional commentary Counterpoint Research 12.4 % (to a minimum over the last 13 years) Expected drop to < 1.1 million units in 2026 IDC 13 % drop this year Warn about preparing for reduced demand Gartner Drop 8.4 %, but smartphone prices +13 % Emphasizes that prices will remain high

How the market will change
1. Low‑budget models

- The biggest hit will come to cheap smartphones due to rising LPDDR4/5 costs and reduced supply.

2. Regional differences

- Companies focused on emerging markets (Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Asia-Pacific) will see sales fall by 14 %–19 %.

3. Major players

- Apple and Samsung, thanks to business scale and long‑term memory supplier contracts, will weather the crisis more easily.

4. Industry consolidation

- A reduction in market participants is expected: some companies will exit, others will merge with larger players.

5. Recovery

- Counterpoint Research projects a return to growth only at the end of 2027, and further supply growth only after 2028.

Memory prices and their impact
- In Q2, LPDDR4/5 prices rose almost threefold compared to Q3 last year.

- Already in January this year, prices for some Android models increased by 10 %–20 %.

- Smartphones under $200 will be cut by more than 20 %.

Consumer behavior
- With high memory costs and rising smartphone prices, buyers tend to extend device lifespans beyond four years.

- The secondary market, especially the segment up to $300, is expected to rise this year.

Conclusion:

According to recent forecasts, a supply drop of 12‑13 % will be the strongest ever recorded, and market recovery will not occur before the end of 2027 until enough memory chips become available.