Smartphones grow by 1 % in the first quarter, but a decline of 15 % is forecast for summer.

Brief summary

* In the first quarter of 2026 the global smartphone market grew by 1% – exceeding analysts’ forecasts.

* The growth was temporary and related to inventory buildup in distribution, not real demand.

* Prices for DRAM memory and NAND flash rose almost 90%; another +30% is expected in Q2.

* Early signs of logistics problems have emerged that will complicate global supply chains.

1. What happened in the first quarter
Factor How it affects Inventory buildup Temporary “pull” on sales volumes – distributors keep more devices in stock to compensate for delivery delays. Rising component costs DRAM and NAND nearly doubled compared to last year; this raises smartphone cost of goods sold. Logistics issues The first wave of disruptions in transportation and customs procedures is already felt, but has not yet reached widespread delays.

2. Results by key brands
Samsung* Returned to number one thanks to strong demand for flagships.
* Pre‑orders for the Galaxy S26 grew more than 10% compared with the S25.
Apple* A steady quarter despite regional hiccups.
* The iPhone 17 maintains high sales levels thanks to a consistent pricing policy.
Android manufacturers* Most are experiencing volume and margin declines.
  * They trim model lineups, launch only selected devices, and tighten prices.
* Huawei strengthens its position in the domestic market with competitive pricing.
* Honor continues to expand abroad.

3. Pricing strategy amid inflation
> *Sanjay Chaursia, chief analyst at Omdia:*
> “Manufacturers are forced to raise prices due to rising cost‑of‑goods pressure, but the effect varies by segment.”

* Budget brands (Xiaomi, Transsion) are most vulnerable: low margin and limited pricing power.
* Apple keeps its prices largely unchanged.
* Samsung uses a flexible approach – raising prices in some markets while holding them steady in others.

Additionally, companies adjust device configurations, cut promotions, and change channel prices to manage margins.

4. Outlook for the second quarter
> *Runar Bjorhovde, chief analyst at Omdia:*
> “The main pressure is still ahead. In the short term price hikes shock demand: buyers postpone purchases while prices stabilize. Meanwhile distribution partners increase inventories, temporarily sustaining supply, but this will only delay, not eliminate, problems for manufacturers.”

* A 15% market decline by year‑end is expected due to ongoing price pressure and logistics constraints.

Conclusion
The first quarter of 2026 showed a “positive” growth, but it is more likely a temporary phenomenon caused by inventory buildup. Rising component costs and early signs of supply‑chain issues pose a threat to further smartphone market growth. Brands are forced to rethink pricing policies and sales strategies to preserve margins amid rising costs.